Scrapping the decennial census of England and Wales: the end of the road for tracking commuters?

Censuses of the general population of England and Wales (E&W) started in 1801 and have taken place almost every 10 years since. A primary purpose of these decennial censuses – to serve as a basis for calculation of resource allocation across areas – has remained, but the data collected has grown in detail complexity, giving a richer population profile snapshot. The most recent E&W census, in 2021, may be the last if the government deems alternative, more cost-effective and/or accurate methods of data collection are available. See https://consultations.ons.gov.uk/ons/futureofpopulationandmigrationstatistics/

Ending census data collection would affect the future of E&W’s largest longitudinal nationally representative data resource, the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (LS). The LS comprises linked census and life events data for a 1% sample of the population of E&W from 1971 onwards, with individuals of all ages becoming members if they have one of four undisclosed birthdays. It enables researchers to track members over the life course, discovering the impacts of an individual’s personal, social and environmental circumstances on their outcomes, including changes in their travel to work.

How we travel is inextricably linked to human and wider planetary health. Understanding what steers individuals’ travel behaviours in future is central to informing transport policy that will protect human health through, for example, climate change adaptation and pandemic preparedness.

In our dual roles as members of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information and User Support (CeLSIUS) team, and as researchers, we demonstrate the power of the LS, presenting our ongoing investigation of commuting behaviour and associated factors – such as self-rated health, socioeconomic status, length of commute, residential and workplace stability, and neighbourhood walkability – among LS members. We highlight the implications of the proposed cessation of the census and discuss data sources needed to interpret future commuting habits.